Author Topic: Erroneous Weather Forecasts  (Read 55 times)

caheadhilldea

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Erroneous Weather Forecasts
« on: January 08, 2018, 01:38:19 AM »
Is predicting weather all that difficult - given today's technology?

Here's today's short-term forecast for Ottawa, Ontario, Canada.Here's the Clear Sky Chart for today in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada.And here's reality at 10:00AM this morning.Like... DUH? Where's the "Mainly Sunny"? I can't even see the Sun! Short-term forecast is way wrong.

The Clear Sky Chart: Where's the Clear of cloud cover? The Transparency is certainly "Below Average" - Way Below Average!
"Average Seeing"... I don't see that! I can't see much at all!

Surely we can do better than this. It's hard to plan the day when the forecasts are so wrong.

Are forecasts any better where you live?








Roger Dixon

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Re: Erroneous Weather Forecasts
« Reply #1 on: January 08, 2018, 01:16:56 PM »
The title of your post is redundant.

aththrilnalo

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Re: Erroneous Weather Forecasts
« Reply #2 on: January 10, 2018, 09:40:31 AM »
We have the very best weather forecasts in the history of mankind. Mostly highly accurate but not perfect as the systems are still highly random.

Forecasts can cover various sized areas but not specific to anyone's home or observing location.

I feel very lucky for what they can do.

Robert Cavalli

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Re: Erroneous Weather Forecasts
« Reply #3 on: January 10, 2018, 12:01:18 PM »
Quote
Are forecasts any better where you live?

87% correct, 13% of the time.

llammenkudi

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Re: Erroneous Weather Forecasts
« Reply #4 on: January 10, 2018, 10:44:08 PM »
Quote
Quote
.....
Are forecasts any better where you live?

87% correct, 13% of the time.
Best Reply and most Accurate!

Carlos Watson

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Re: Erroneous Weather Forecasts
« Reply #5 on: January 11, 2018, 03:41:19 AM »
Hi Rick,
Same problem here in South Dakota. I used to be able to use the clear sky clock and it was fairly accurate but anymore it is more often wrong than right. Our local weather forecasters do ok but are often times wrong as well. The Black Hills make it a bit hard to make accurate forecasts or so they say. But I have noticed the forecasts are not very accurate anymore.

Martin

synchanrimyp

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Re: Erroneous Weather Forecasts
« Reply #6 on: January 12, 2018, 12:36:34 PM »
Quote
Quote

Quote
.....
Are forecasts any better where you live?

87% correct, 13% of the time.
Best Reply and most Accurate!
Agreed'

ramapali

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Re: Erroneous Weather Forecasts
« Reply #7 on: January 13, 2018, 02:13:03 AM »
I can't remember the last time the weatherman got it right...you learn more about tomorrow's weather from looking west (at least where I live) than from anything the weather "forecasters" say, who are no more precise or accurate than the Oracle of Delphi, and just as vague.
"50% chance of fair weather tomorrow"...yeah, 50% not! Any guy off the street corner could have said that! With reports that vague, no one can ever say they were wrong, so they get to keep their jobs as TV talking heads.

Martin.

P.S.: By the way, Rick, sorry that your skies suck! They look just like mine...

Sean Lee

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Re: Erroneous Weather Forecasts
« Reply #8 on: January 13, 2018, 09:22:33 PM »
I have grown accustomed to the weather guessers hit or miss prognostications...

Now, I just look outside and if it's clear... and I have the time... I'll set up a scope...

Cory Bass

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Re: Erroneous Weather Forecasts
« Reply #9 on: January 16, 2018, 10:51:07 PM »
Around here, they do a pretty good job. And in general they are pretty accurate. They'll get the temperatures reasonably close, they'll get the precipitation reasonably close, they'll tell you if it going to rain or snow. They're pretty good on the wind and the humidity.

Cloud cover, it's important to us as amateur astronomers, most other people it doesn't really matter. Looking out the window, today's cleardarkskyprediction for San Diego looks to be pretty accurate. Probably worth setting up, I guess..



Jon

cieledrore

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Re: Erroneous Weather Forecasts
« Reply #10 on: January 16, 2018, 11:05:49 PM »
I have just as cloudy as they predict.

Easy game, should be glad?

Btw, "mainly sunny" doesn't mean much. "Sunny" generally does. I can see clear weather in the horizon of your picture. How was it half an hour to an hour later?

Jeremy Swaine

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Re: Erroneous Weather Forecasts
« Reply #11 on: January 18, 2018, 07:46:32 AM »
Thanks for the many responses... viewer, here's what it looked like at 3PM (5 hours later). Same/Same!

ilinsubesch

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Re: Erroneous Weather Forecasts
« Reply #12 on: January 20, 2018, 11:42:38 PM »
I have been trusting the Clear Outside website lately.
But it can get it wrong too.
I am glad of the website's existence because I can key in my city (Dublin, Ireland).
But recently I set up my 158 mm apo before sunset.
Clear -Outside stated all day that the night in question was going to be clear.
However after my evening dinner I went out for an observing session, and found the sky almost completely overcast!
I then went back inside to discover that the website had been updated to 90% overcast skies!

I reckon some nerd woke up to realise he had made an error.
And accuweather are just as bad.

I reckon they all ought to be fined!

Aubrey.

bermordliro

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Re: Erroneous Weather Forecasts
« Reply #13 on: January 21, 2018, 01:40:24 AM »
Saturday night you should get an opportunity , start early . Actually this hasn't been as bad a November as in past years ,

Christian Shim

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Re: Erroneous Weather Forecasts
« Reply #14 on: January 23, 2018, 12:29:00 PM »
Brownsville Tx would be good tonight. Florida maybe. Check water vapor found at bottom of this link.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browse.html