Author Topic: Observing and Global Warming (count down to the end?  (Read 327 times)

veworltonuc

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Re: Observing and Global Warming (count down to the end?
« Reply #15 on: January 22, 2018, 11:50:21 PM »
Quote
Give it a few years and no doubt climatologists will change their minds ... again ... just like they did back in the 1970's when they were all positive the world was heading into a new ice age in 50 years. Climatology is more akin to Scientology.


Rags like "Newsweek" and "Time" may have implied that "they were all positive", but that wasn't the case. It's not likely that anybody will read this, but there was nothing in the literature resembling a consensus view in the 1970's regarding the earth cooling.

https://www.skeptica...al-cooling.html

Tom

Omar Manning

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Re: Observing and Global Warming (count down to the end?
« Reply #16 on: January 23, 2018, 09:45:51 AM »
Honestly, I don't know if we (the big "we") know enough to say how the changing climate will or won't affect astronomy over the coming years. I expect that in some areas, it will get worse while in others it will get better. In some, it will remain similar to previous years. For instance, here in NEOhio, I have seen no basic change in the variability of our weather over the past 50+ years. Some years it's dry, some wet, some hot some cold. Inevitably though, we get less sunny days than other areas like SoCal, and winter is always far harsher than in southern Florida, southern Texas, or southern California, where "winter" is a virtually meaningless term in the classic meaning ie, snow,and freezing temperatures. (But we also don't generally suffer from Hurricanes or routine forest fires, even if we did have a tornado warning the other day) .

Derek Vail

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Re: Observing and Global Warming (count down to the end?
« Reply #17 on: January 23, 2018, 01:50:47 PM »
While it would take too long to post here I did add a section on “selecting an observing site” to my article in Lake Istokpoga Observatory ( http://www.alpo-astr...Observatory.pdf ) describing what observers in south Florida found after decades of study of local seeing, transparency and cloudless. After moving to central Florida in 2001 I find very similar conditions exists for observing planets. BTW, I have observed in many regions of the USA and while time were short periods still think the conditions remain close to what they were back in the early 1970’s.

bescoldsearchroom

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Re: Observing and Global Warming (count down to the end?
« Reply #18 on: January 31, 2018, 12:16:45 AM »
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In some areas, it will get worse while in others it will get better. In some, it will remain similar

I think this is about the best that can be said.
Though, my view is that changes in the weather are probably not going to have the biggest impact on our observing. Growth of urbanisation and lack of control of light pollution will have more effect I suspect.

We sit under the flight path from N Europe to North America, so we often get a lot of diffuse vapour deposited about 40,000ft above our heads. When theEyjafjallajökull volcano erupted in Iceland in 2010, we had some fantastically clear evenings when airspace was closed, so air traffic is significant as well .

monsresiwor

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Re: Observing and Global Warming (count down to the end?
« Reply #19 on: January 31, 2018, 02:35:20 AM »
I wish the sea level would rise, maybe I could use my sailboat more as half the time it's on the bottom as getting dredging permits seems to take an act of God. A foot would be nice.

Seriously, this last summer was mild compared to many in the past. I can remember much hotter Summer's back in the 1970s where we had weeks on end with 100 degree plus weather here. I have no doubt cities are get warmer as they keep getting larger, more concrete and asphalt, more AC pumping out heat. Not scientific, but my wife was born here in Florida and grew up without AC until she was 16 years old. Said it was always pleasant until the small town she lived in had a building boom. Just never cooled down as much at night after that. We now live in the country, no asphalt roads nearby etc. 12 miles east of a small town of around 10,000. We are consistently 4 degrees cooler at night and in the morning than that small town. Just an observation....

trimarnado

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Re: Observing and Global Warming (count down to the end?
« Reply #20 on: January 31, 2018, 07:36:44 AM »
The question about whether the Earth is warming or not is moot. It is. Scientists have provided ample evidence of that. The question of WHY, however, can be debated and discussed elsewhere. Please keep that in mind. I personally am concerned about another Solar Minimum taking hold right now. Things have been extraordinarily quiet since 2006. It's cooling effect is well chronicled, especially if it extends to decades. So, the "warming trend" may abruptly end without warning in the near future. Keep that in mind as well. I will say this, however: In my 15 years in the Upstate region of NY, I have actual and anecdotal evidence that the winters have indeed grown shorter in that time. Make of it what you will. My two cents...

STARKID2U

ebalared

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Re: Observing and Global Warming (count down to the end?
« Reply #21 on: January 31, 2018, 12:13:03 PM »
My two pennies... the Earth had a warm/hot start and has been cooling sloooowwwwly ever since, and not all at once, but in spurts (through several ice ages). Yes, the Earth is going through a warming period at this blip in cosmic time, but another Ice Age will happen, and we can't change that. Earth's climate has gone through changes many times over the millennia... and will continue to do so, long after we are gone. Are we, as a species, accelerating this current warming trend? I think the evidence suggests we are. But we are accelerating an already inevitable occurrence... to be followed at some point by another inevitable cooling period.

But I tend not to be too worried about all this when I am star gazing...

Just my opinion, and likely not worth the two cents I originally charged for it...

CB

safrioheartli

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Re: Observing and Global Warming (count down to the end?
« Reply #22 on: February 02, 2018, 02:02:29 PM »
Quote
Quote

Quote

Give it a few years and no doubt climatologists will change their minds ... again ... just like they did back in the 1970's when they were all positive the world was heading into a new ice age in 50 years. Climatology is more akin to Scientology.

And they would be correct. The earths north polar axis is slowly pointing away from the sun, via precession, which signals the next ice age cycle. Evidence exist that the current warming trend, artificial or not, is offsetting what should be a cooling trend. Models suggest that this natural cooling cycle will eventually reverse the warming trend. Something else to consider is the lack of solar activity. Should it continue another Maunder Minimum may be in the offering.
The earth's north polar axis, what does that even mean? The axis goes from the north pole to the south pole.

And the north pole points away from the sun every year. It's called winter in the northern hemisphere.
Isn’t precession something that takes place over 24K years not a 100 years?

teirazaro

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Re: Observing and Global Warming (count down to the end?
« Reply #23 on: February 02, 2018, 03:57:32 PM »
Quote
Quote

Give it a few years and no doubt climatologists will change their minds ... again ... just like they did back in the 1970's when they were all positive the world was heading into a new ice age in 50 years. Climatology is more akin to Scientology.


Rags like "Newsweek" and "Time" may have implied that "they were all positive", but that wasn't the case. It's not likely that anybody will read this, but there was nothing in the literature resembling a consensus view in the 1970's regarding the earth cooling.

https://www.skeptica...al-cooling.html

Tom
And we didn’t have smartphones in the 70’s either. Things change and I don’t call Newsweek and Time rags. We didn’t have accurate number on the universes expansion rate and people laughed at the Higgs. Science seems to have a consensus now on global warming.

vertcalnorsdef

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Re: Observing and Global Warming (count down to the end?
« Reply #24 on: February 02, 2018, 05:24:52 PM »
Quote
Quote

Quote

Give it a few years and no doubt climatologists will change their minds ... again ... just like they did back in the 1970's when they were all positive the world was heading into a new ice age in 50 years. Climatology is more akin to Scientology.


Rags like "Newsweek" and "Time" may have implied that "they were all positive", but that wasn't the case. It's not likely that anybody will read this, but there was nothing in the literature resembling a consensus view in the 1970's regarding the earth cooling.

https://www.skeptica...al-cooling.html

Tom
And we didn’t have smartphones in the 70’s either. Things change and I don’t call Newsweek and Time rags. We didn’t have accurate number on the universes expansion rate and people laughed at the Higgs. Science seems to have a consensus now on global warming.
Grant money goes a long way to building a consensus. Tow the line and you get to buy groceries ... offer alternative explanations on collected data and you starve. History is full of scientist who have "massaged" their data to fit into the "consensus" to keep the grant money flowing. We're all human ... I think.

Roberto Betancourt

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Re: Observing and Global Warming (count down to the end?
« Reply #25 on: February 02, 2018, 05:28:24 PM »
Quote
Quote

Give it a few years and no doubt climatologists will change their minds ... again ... just like they did back in the 1970's when they were all positive the world was heading into a new ice age in 50 years. Climatology is more akin to Scientology.


Rags like "Newsweek" and "Time" may have implied that "they were all positive", but that wasn't the case. It's not likely that anybody will read this, but there was nothing in the literature resembling a consensus view in the 1970's regarding the earth cooling.

https://www.skeptica...al-cooling.html

Tom
And we didn’t have smartphones in the 70’s either. Things change and I don’t call Newsweek and Time rags. We didn’t have accurate number on the universes expansion rate and people laughed at the Higgs. Science seems to have a consensus now on global warming.[/quote]
Grant money goes a long way to building a consensus. Tow the line and you get to buy groceries ... offer alternative explanations on collected data and you starve. History is full of scientist who have "massaged" their data to fit into the "consensus" to keep the grant money flowing. We're all human ... I think.[/quote]

So what you're saying is that you agree now that they weren't all positive the world was heading into a new ice age in the 1970's?

Grant Buchanan

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Re: Observing and Global Warming (count down to the end?
« Reply #26 on: February 02, 2018, 11:07:32 PM »
Quote
Quote

Give it a few years and no doubt climatologists will change their minds ... again ... just like they did back in the 1970's when they were all positive the world was heading into a new ice age in 50 years. Climatology is more akin to Scientology.

And they would be correct. The earths north polar axis is slowly pointing away from the sun, via precession, which signals the next ice age cycle. Evidence exist that the current warming trend, artificial or not, is offsetting what should be a cooling trend. Models suggest that this natural cooling cycle will eventually reverse the warming trend. Something else to consider is the lack of solar activity. Should it continue another Maunder Minimum may be in the offering.
The earth's north polar axis, what does that even mean? The axis goes from the north pole to the south pole.

And the north pole points away from the sun every year. It's called winter in the northern hemisphere.[/quote]

http://www.astro.cor...rth_precess.htm

The earth north polar axis is slowly beginning to point farther and farther away from the sun. As you note we also have a south polar axis, it is pointing more towards the sun. As the north axis continues to point away from the sun, in a process lasting 10's of thousands of years, northern winters will become much longer and deeper.

https://en.wikipedia...iki/Pleistocene[/quote]
I'm well aware of precession, and ice ages.

The earth's axis is the line going from the north pole to the south pole, through the center of the earth. It doesn't really make sense to speak of the north axis or the south axis. There is just one axis, with a north and south pole.

And the north pole does in fact point away from the sun every year.

Except for precession, which takes 10's of thousands of years as you said, the direction of the axis with regard to the "fixed" stars, is fixed. The north pole of the earth's axis is currently pointing in the direction of Polaris and will be for a long time to come. During northern winter, the north pole is pointed away from the sun.

The fact that the earth's axis is tilted with respect to its orbit around the sun is the reason for the seasons. And northern winter is caused by the north pole pointing away from the sun.

The Milankovitch hypothesis, which is linked to from your Pleistocene wiki, is about multiple factors, not just precession.[/quote]

I'm not getting your point. The fact you understand precession suggest you should know that ice ages are cyclical and predictable because of precession. The north end of the earths spin axis is slowly pointing farther from polaris every year on its way to lining up with thuban in a few thousand years. When this occurs the northern hemisphere will see the sun much further south in the sky and will experience deeper and longer winters. The ice age begins.
See:
http://astro.wsu.edu...precession.html

hanatuaser

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Re: Observing and Global Warming (count down to the end?
« Reply #27 on: February 03, 2018, 04:34:09 AM »
Quote
Grant money goes a long way to building a consensus. Tow the line and you get to buy groceries ... offer alternative explanations on collected data and you starve. History is full of scientist who have "massaged" their data to fit into the "consensus" to keep the grant money flowing. We're all human ... I think.

Follow the money is probably a good idea. Seems like there might be even more money to be made on the other side. Compare NSF annual budget with Exxon annual revenue, for example. Probably best to stop there. Maybe time to lock the thread even.

rankkozical

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Re: Observing and Global Warming (count down to the end?
« Reply #28 on: February 03, 2018, 04:38:19 AM »
Quote
Quote

Give it a few years and no doubt climatologists will change their minds ... again ... just like they did back in the 1970's when they were all positive the world was heading into a new ice age in 50 years. Climatology is more akin to Scientology.

And they would be correct. The earths north polar axis is slowly pointing away from the sun, via precession, which signals the next ice age cycle. Evidence exist that the current warming trend, artificial or not, is offsetting what should be a cooling trend. Models suggest that this natural cooling cycle will eventually reverse the warming trend. Something else to consider is the lack of solar activity. Should it continue another Maunder Minimum may be in the offering.
The earth's north polar axis, what does that even mean? The axis goes from the north pole to the south pole.

And the north pole points away from the sun every year. It's called winter in the northern hemisphere.[/quote]

http://www.astro.cor...rth_precess.htm

The earth north polar axis is slowly beginning to point farther and farther away from the sun. As you note we also have a south polar axis, it is pointing more towards the sun. As the north axis continues to point away from the sun, in a process lasting 10's of thousands of years, northern winters will become much longer and deeper.

https://en.wikipedia...iki/Pleistocene[/quote]
I'm well aware of precession, and ice ages.

The earth's axis is the line going from the north pole to the south pole, through the center of the earth. It doesn't really make sense to speak of the north axis or the south axis. There is just one axis, with a north and south pole.

And the north pole does in fact point away from the sun every year.

Except for precession, which takes 10's of thousands of years as you said, the direction of the axis with regard to the "fixed" stars, is fixed. The north pole of the earth's axis is currently pointing in the direction of Polaris and will be for a long time to come. During northern winter, the north pole is pointed away from the sun.

The fact that the earth's axis is tilted with respect to its orbit around the sun is the reason for the seasons. And northern winter is caused by the north pole pointing away from the sun.

The Milankovitch hypothesis, which is linked to from your Pleistocene wiki, is about multiple factors, not just precession.[/quote]

I'm not getting your point. The fact you understand precession suggest you should know that ice ages are cyclical and predictable because of precession. The north end of the earths spin axis is slowly pointing farther from polaris every year on its way to lining up with thuban in a few thousand years. When this occurs the northern hemisphere will see the sun much further south in the sky and will experience deeper and longer winters. The ice age begins.
See:
http://astro.wsu.edu...precession.html[/quote]
If you take a look at that page, you will see that precession doesn't appreciably change the tilt of the earth's axis, just its direction. So while precession will cause the timing of the seasons to change with respect to our current calendar, it won't actually have the effect of making the sun be further in the south.

Yung Pryor

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Re: Observing and Global Warming (count down to the end?
« Reply #29 on: February 03, 2018, 10:20:47 AM »
Since this thread has gone in the direction away from observing, and going into full discussion of global warming; this thread will be locked, pending review.