Author Topic: Chicago Crime rate by hour/neighbourhood  (Read 124 times)

kondcongrese

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Chicago Crime rate by hour/neighbourhood
« on: December 29, 2017, 11:01:03 AM »
If this data is in fact genuine, It would certainly upend the argument that more lighting deters crime. It seems the circadian rhythm is the most effective.

http://htmlpreview.g...ighborhood.html

Anyone else see this?



Michael Zamora

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Re: Chicago Crime rate by hour/neighbourhood
« Reply #1 on: December 30, 2017, 03:33:19 AM »
What else would you expect? Crooks need their sleep too.

inmactoopho

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Re: Chicago Crime rate by hour/neighbourhood
« Reply #2 on: December 30, 2017, 06:29:45 AM »
Quote
If this data is in fact genuine, It would certainly upend the argument that more lighting deters crime. It seems the circadian rhythm is the most effective.

http://htmlpreview.g...ighborhood.html

Anyone else see this?

I'm sure the Chicago Police Dept. would respond, that the streets are so well lighted, that day or night time; doesn't make any difference. Many other social factors and causes dominate the crime rates in Chicago and most big cities.

Manuel Ghumare

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Re: Chicago Crime rate by hour/neighbourhood
« Reply #3 on: January 01, 2018, 10:08:17 AM »
Oddly enough it appears that the criminals seem to avoid the times when people are most likely be home or asleep and neighbourhoods are quiet and concentrate on the daylight hours when they cant be seen as easily and it is noisier.

Zachary Tenk

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Re: Chicago Crime rate by hour/neighbourhood
« Reply #4 on: January 08, 2018, 11:49:43 AM »
Nothing odd about it!

Just as you and I prefer to conduct our business during our waking hours, so do the criminals.

Ryan Wilton

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Re: Chicago Crime rate by hour/neighbourhood
« Reply #5 on: January 10, 2018, 05:22:24 AM »
I don't think most criminals put a lot of thought into their life of crime. The weekend murder rate in Chicago shows that murders are committed when criminals have the most time on their hands.

Bobby Cruz

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Re: Chicago Crime rate by hour/neighbourhood
« Reply #6 on: January 10, 2018, 03:43:21 PM »
Quote
I don't think most criminals put a lot of thought into their life of crime. The weekend murder rate in Chicago shows that murders are committed when criminals have the most time on their hands.

That's one way to interpret the data. More likely, it's when their victims are most likely to be out of their homes, making burglary more attractive, and also when they're more likely to be on the streets, making mugging more attractive.

Regardless, the data shown here have precisely no bearing on the question whether street lighting increased crime, decreases crime, or has no effect on crime. It's equally compatible with all of those hypotheses.

bayretide

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Re: Chicago Crime rate by hour/neighbourhood
« Reply #7 on: January 10, 2018, 08:41:38 PM »
Something that just seemed interesting about the data presented in the chart. The crime rate per hour does not seem to vary (at least within statistical variation) with each day Monday through to Sunday. The data suggests that crime is more dependent on a seven day per week, day and evening shift schedule rather than another effect. It would be interesting to see seasonal variations and holiday rates.

Lauro Mason

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Re: Chicago Crime rate by hour/neighbourhood
« Reply #8 on: January 11, 2018, 01:27:24 AM »
This op-ed is kind of old, but I think it does a good job of refuting the idea that more light = less crime. The fact of the matter is that the same light that lets us see to walk or put gas in our cars also enables crooks to see so they can do what they do. Criminals can't see in the dark any better than we can. If light by itself deterred crime, there would be no crime in the daytime.

http://www.latimes.c...0816-story.html

ermaudyvi

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Re: Chicago Crime rate by hour/neighbourhood
« Reply #9 on: January 11, 2018, 11:37:17 AM »
Whether or not more crimes take place during daylight hours than during darkness is not relevent to the question of whether outdoor lighting is a factor in nighttime crime rates, either globally or for a particular location or demographic.

The question has to be is there an objective relationship between outdoor lighting and nighttime crime? To answer that question usefully there must be data, and as someone said the plural of anecdote is not data.

We have to avoid the fallacy of post hoc propter hoc as well. Many of the anecdotal tales on both sides of this question report a single behavior for a single time period. Some of them ignore other factors that also changed. Some use proxies for crime, such as a survey (often with dubious or unstated methodology and without a valid statistical test), such as asking some people if the newlights make them feel safe or if more lights would be better.

Our utility was unable to show a relationship between lighting and crime, so they sell LED conversions by including testimonials that imply something about crime.

A few years ago Los Angeles addressed nighttime crime in some parks by adding a great amount of lighting. Then the project organizers produced a statistic to show a large drop in crime, crime being actual crime or suspected crime, or maybe just suspicious people hanging around. Success declared, more lights were funded.

The comedy was in the photo showing the lights andthepoliceofficer who was stationed at the courts every night.

It might be hopeless to persuade people on this common sense point. Ancient Rome had no street lights and ancient Romans and some modern historians believed that torches reduced street crime. Torch bearers with daggers and clubs were not a factor, nor was the fact that torch bearers implied something to steal.

Our crime rate is very low at all times. Most of the crime is confined to three areas, Saint Mary's College of California (a relative hot bed), an area of apartments and a shopping center. The college is very brightly lighted as is the shopping center. Campus crime is nearly always student and friend of student crime and takes place indoors. Most of the crime in the shopping center is shoplifting during business hours. No parking lot crime has been reported in years. Much of the remaining crime is daylight burglary and domestic crime.

But our police chief reported that the crime rate was down due to cameras and lights. He has zero evidence to support this. So why say it? First year as chief? Some council members and some homeowners want lights or cameras? Maybe because the town manager (and former police chief) likes cameras and lights. Maybe the same reasons presidents claim credit forcreating jobs. Maybe we favor lights because the town needs revenue and if businesses stay open at night there will be more revenue.

In short science isn't a player. Sometimes you can persuade one or a few and sometimes you can impact a planning decision, but the politicians and many ordinary folks just won't get it.

Am I a pessimist? Of sorts. But where there are opportunities to educate and persuade we should take them. Better to act than not.

Adam Washington

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Re: Chicago Crime rate by hour/neighbourhood
« Reply #10 on: January 11, 2018, 04:19:26 PM »
People are afraid of the dark and want their neighborhoods well illuminated, day or night, to feel safe. Whether this really does make them safe is not the issue here, as long as they FEEL safer. Even if it could be proven without any doubt that illuminating towns at nightcreated more crime, people would still want streetlights, that's how the human mind works, at least in 99% of the cases.Clear skies!
Thomas, Denmark

rankkozical

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Re: Chicago Crime rate by hour/neighbourhood
« Reply #11 on: January 15, 2018, 10:46:04 PM »
People want to know. What is there? If it is dark it reaks of the unknown. This is how horror movies are shown, want a tense moment, have the lights go out. How to fight generations of fear is not easy. Maybe no lights of the apocalypse, no that's just more fear. Darn the invention of the electric light

adrajacte

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Re: Chicago Crime rate by hour/neighbourhood
« Reply #12 on: January 18, 2018, 03:55:06 AM »
Quote
People want to know. What is there? If it is dark it reaks of the unknown. This is how horror movies are shown, want a tense moment, have the lights go out. How to fight generations of fear is not easy. Maybe no lights of the apocalypse, no that's just more fear. Darn the invention of the electric light

I think that people retain an instinctive fear of the dark, from our earliest ancestors. Most people are even uncomfortable in their own homes in the dark. As far as lighting, people learned early in the 1900's that shielded lights, ie, with lamp shades, etc, gave a much more pleasant, effective, illumination inside their homes. I suppose most people don't spend enough time outside at night to learn that the same concept holds true there.
 Marty